A year or so, I would bet the same advanced understanding of the H'vill will also play out up north, and it as well will be much larger than expected.
If it's any conciliation, I bet a higher percentage of the H'ville will be available to exploit versus being off limits due to government bans.
News like this doesn't usually affect price. This is more of a geological exercise, in that it is an estimate on the geological size of the play. It doesn't mean this gas is economical to get, especially at $3. It does give one some confidence that the play is not a "flash in the pan". You may recall that when the plays around here first got started we would quite often hear anti-development folks warning of very short play lifetimes, that it would only be a few short years and the field would be an abandoned wasteland left unfit for anything. This just kind of helps disprove all of that.
I'm by no means educated in the science aspect of it, but experience shows that several places have oil and gas that have been producing for decades. And as technology progresses, those old plays are sometimes renewed with new ideas. To say a play will only last a few years is somewhat short sighted.
Not in Bossier but from the Bossier formation. Keep in mind two things, 1. the USGS has always had difficulty separating the shale portion of the Haynesville Formation from the sand portion, and 2. the Bossier formation is the basil, or deepest, member of the Cotton Valley Sands group. I do give the USGS some credit for belatedly coming up with a more accurate map that shows the shale portion of the basin does not extend into southwest Arkansas.
The Bossier sits over the Haynesville regardless of whether we are talking about the shale portion of the basin or the sand portion of the basin. Haynesville Sand production and Lower Cotton Valley production, which in some cases includes the Bossier Sand, often produces liquids. There is a simple way to tell one from the other. Where you find long lived, low decline vertical wells you have generally found the sand, not the shale. There are exceptions for areas with low permeability such as the Terryville Complex where horizontal wells are more economic and produce meaningful liquid loads.